Extreme Elements

There’s a lot of Trump mania in the press these days. I think it’s an overreaction.
Here’s a conversation I had with friend and colleague Charles Madigan about the situation.

Charlie: Most of the political focus in the news has been on Donald Trump’s impending embrace by the Republicans as the GOP presidential candidate for 2024. His opponents probably don’t matter in the scheme of things. He might be dented by convictions on any of the nearly 100 charges he faces in indictments. Thus far, they have only enhanced his fundraising.

We’re looking at two old white men as the choices in 2024, a Big Mac-fueled blusterer who urged his backers to overthrow the government even though he had been assured he lost the race, and an octogenarian who is weak in two of the most important Democratic constituencies, black voters and young voters. Neither of these men can claim vibrancy as the campaigns proceed.

photo by 2 Bull Photography

But even this far away from the election, there are signs around the country that Trump’s influences are already affecting how the Republican Party will behave. Those Republicans who were loudly supportive of Trump’s election theft claim did not fare well in the midterm elections. But I don’t think they learned their lesson. His influence played out in the House Republican's stumbling effort to elect a new speaker, after tossing out the first one. 

Trump’s current theme is that Joe Biden is a threat to Democracy. Watch how that starts popping up all over as the campaign proceeds. Trump will be trying to offset the fact that he is the one formally accused of trying to stage a coup. Message echoing is a common tactic, and the man knows how to make echoes.

Also, some school districts are just a step away from holding pre-war German-style book burnings of any texts that don’t toe the line on an array of social issues, LGBTQ narratives among them. Trump may not be directly behind that but expect him to sign on soon enough.

And Republicans are already echoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s promise to attack the Obama-care health insurance program and “reform it,” in ways we can only imagine at this point. Trump has put himself on board that, too.

Maybe I’m just handwringing about this, but we aren’t even deeply in the campaign yet, and it is already affecting how politics behaves. Do you see this, too, Jim, or am I just freaked out at the looming prospect of another Trump presidency?

Jim: I can’t blame you for being freaked out. Trump, and, in a way, Biden both drive the behavior of their political tribes, and, at this point, it’s not a pretty picture. Unfortunately, extreme elements of both parties create the narratives that echo on the campaign trail and in the halls of the White House. We are a long way from election day, though, and, as a prime poll skeptic, you know the current numbers are painfully unreliable. I firmly believe the right wing of the Republican Party will nominate Trump for another run for the White House. It’s too late for any Democrat to credibly challenge Biden. So, you are right. We face an election with two old white guys running for a big house of the same color.

I think Democrats will come to their senses once the Republicans nominate Trump. At this point, the extreme elements of both parties motivate primary voters by making lots of noise, thereby creating the poll number that scare otherwise sensible people. The media love it because noise makes a good – and scary – story. Come election day, though, voters will have to focus on results. Biden may be an octogenarian, but he's done a good job on the thing that really counts – the economy. Despite Trump’s claims to the contrary, inflation is falling without a dreaded recession on the horizon. Unemployment is low, mortgage rates are falling, and the Federal Reserve could soon start lowering interest rates. And what do the Republicans have as an alternative?  A sore loser who will be lucky to evade a criminal conviction by election day. Independent voters, not extremists in both parties, will decide this election, and I don't think they'll see Trump as a good choice.

Charlie: Let’s hope and pray you are right about this, Jim. The more I read about Trump these days the more upsetting the prospect of his re-election becomes. The first thing he pledges to do is set up what amounts to a Department of Retribution to go after anyone who dissed him in any way during his first term (and there were plenty in that camp!). Then he is going to end the independence of the Department of Justice so he can go after new offenders. Then he is going to pack the federal government with his fawning boot lickers. Then he is going to unleash the U.S. Army under the Insurrection Act to police troubling American cities. And Gawd knows what else he thinks he can do. He’s like a Mussolini wanna-be without the delightful garlic.

Jim: There’s no question that Trump’s ideas are wacko. Biden shouldn’t let them sit out there and stew in the electorate. I think he should switch tactics and start swinging – hard. He’s got a big, fat target right in front of him. Too often Biden comes off as too “old” because he takes the high road and looks like someone too weary to fight. He should start attacking Trump as the true threat to Democracy, the sore loser who tried to subvert the Constitution because he lost a fair fight and proved he can’t take a punch. Biden is a seasoned fighter who knows his way around the ring we call politics. His opponent is a bully, and we all know what a bully does when someone swings back. A combative Biden will project the image of energy that we associate with youth. He might even get some credit for the many good things he’s done.

—James O’Shea and Charles Madigan

James O’Shea is a longtime Chicago author and journalist who now lives in North Carolina. He is the author of several books and is the former editor of the Los Angeles Times and managing editor of the Chicago Tribune. Follow Jim’s Five W’s Substack here.     

Charles Madigan is a writer and veteran foreign and national correspondent for UPI and the Chicago Tribune, where he also served as a senior writer and editor. He examines news reporting, politics and world events.